Imagining 2040 

On 12 February DUT held an AGORA Strategic Dialogue on the topic of “Thriving Urban Areas in 2040: Navigating Crises and Uncertainty”. What was the event about and what were the key outcomes?  

It is 2040 and you live in Pandaville a city of stark differences. In Pandaville ambition and technology meet rising heat and fundamental social divisions. Top notch cooling systems are used in the wealthier parts of town, a luxury that not everyone can afford. The changing water cycle affects the city with recurring shifts from water scarcity to extreme rains and floods.  

Even though solar panels are widely visible, energy shortages occur. Yet, despite the significant challenges, people from the countryside still move to Pandaville to seek employment. Promises have been made to improve the situation, but progress cannot keep pace with the unfolding crises.  

Futuring Methodologies  

Pandaville is not real, at least not fully. It was created by artificial intelligence, based on a European city under the scenario of a 2.5 degrees Celsius temperature rise. The city formed the basis of discussions at DUT’s AGORA Strategic Dialogue on 12 February. AGORAs are DUT’s stakeholder engagement format. They offer strong opportunities to network and interact. This AGORA gave a glimpse of a potential future in the face of significant climate change and biodiversity loss with online participants joining from across the world including Shanghai, Cape Town, and various places in Europe.  

As part of the workshop, participants developed different personas like Sara who is 42 years and values Pandaville’s vibrant lifestyle but is challenged by the cost of living. Maria, another citizen, is 24 years old, and a climate refugee who currently struggles to find employment. The participants were then matched up in different citizen panels to discuss, under the guidance of facilitators, adaptations Pandaville’s citizens would have to make as well as what needs to happen to prepare for these changes.  

Between Optimism and Uncertainty  

The conversations revealed strong commonalities between citizens and the challenges they faced. All of them had to accept limitations in how they would organize their day to avoid the heat. Many panelists raised concerns around the high energy usage of cooling, inequalities, and social insecurity.  

Discussions in different citizen panels reverberated around topics such as urban farming and greening cities, public transport, technology, the role of the private sector and artificial intelligence, collaboration across borders and systems thinking. Questions raised included what governance model will set the legislative framework in the city of the future and which adaptive capacities and means of implementation will cities have?  

While many remarks reflected the gravity of multiple crises weighing on Pandaville, others maintained a positive stance despite the gloomy outlook. A sense of optimism came out especially when zooming into a particular topic and the opportunities it may bring. As one participant put it: “Urban planning practice will change so that we will have greener, more livable cities. Nothing will change overnight, but I opt to be optimistic.”  

A Strategic Dialogue  

The event was special in the sense that it was part of a larger process in the DUT Partnership: “After three years of implementation of the DUT Partnership we reflect on the changing ecosystem around us and engage with different stakeholders such as ministries and funding agencies to update our strategy, the DUT Roadmap. As part of this process, we have a broad stakeholder exchange including this AGORA”, said Orsolya Küttel, CEO at DUT.  

Johannes Riegler from DUTs Management Team added: “This workshop will give us some golden nuggets on emerging topics and ideas that we may want to have a closer look at. Some ideas of emerging topics I took with me from today were inequalities, governance, adaptation, as well as health in cities and what it means for public spaces.” The consultation process around DUT’s Roadmap will continue in the coming weeks and months with the next event being the DUT Scientific Consultation Workshop in Rome on 26 February.